Risk

Scenario Planning

Plan across 4 plausible futures

Best for: stress-testing long-range bets
Time: half-day workshop
Difficulty: Advanced

Example

Stress-testing the 5-year plan across plausible futures

Boom · AI matures fast

Aggressive hiring
Acquire smaller competitor

Boom · AI plateaus

Double down on UX
Premium positioning

Bust · AI matures fast

Survive on efficiency gains
Cut to core team

Bust · AI plateaus

Hold cash 24 months
Slow product expansion

Related frameworks

Stress Testing

Push assumptions to breaking point

Black Swan Analysis

Surface unknown-unknowns

Pre-mortem

Imagine the failure first

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