Framework
Risk

Scenario Planning

Plan across 4 plausible futures

Best for
stress-testing long-range bets
Time
half-day workshop
Difficulty
Advanced

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Scenario Planning diagramSchematic of the Scenario Planning framework: Plan across 4 plausible futures.DeclineBoomStagnationRecoveryVariable 2 →Variable 1 ↑
The Scenario Planning diagram — Plan across 4 plausible futures.
Example

Stress-testing the 5-year plan across plausible futures

Boom · AI matures fast
  • Aggressive hiring
  • Acquire smaller competitor
Boom · AI plateaus
  • Double down on UX
  • Premium positioning
Bust · AI matures fast
  • Survive on efficiency gains
  • Cut to core team
Bust · AI plateaus
  • Hold cash 24 months
  • Slow product expansion

Related frameworks

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Stress Testing

Push assumptions to breaking point

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Black Swan Analysis

Surface unknown-unknowns

Risk

Pre-mortem

Imagine the failure first

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