Framework
Risk

Black Swan Analysis

Surface unknown-unknowns

Best for
probing extreme rare events
Time
30–60 min
Difficulty
Intermediate

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Black Swan Analysis diagramSchematic of the Black Swan Analysis framework: Surface unknown-unknowns.ExpectedBlack swan
The Black Swan Analysis diagram — Surface unknown-unknowns.
Example

Imagining unknown-unknowns for a fintech serving SMB lending

Black-swan candidates
  1. A regulator outlaws our core product overnight in a key state
  2. Our largest partner is acquired by a direct competitor
  3. A viral data-leak headline tanks trust in the category
  4. A foundational model price drops 10× and undercuts our value
  5. An extreme-weather event disables a primary data center for weeks

Related frameworks

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Scenario Planning

Plan across 4 plausible futures

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Stress Testing

Push assumptions to breaking point

Risk

Pre-mortem

Imagine the failure first

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