Black Swan Analysis
Surface unknown-unknowns
- Best for
- probing extreme rare events
- Time
- 30–60 min
- Difficulty
- Intermediate
Example
Imagining unknown-unknowns for a fintech serving SMB lending
Black-swan candidates
- A regulator outlaws our core product overnight in a key state
- Our largest partner is acquired by a direct competitor
- A viral data-leak headline tanks trust in the category
- A foundational model price drops 10× and undercuts our value
- An extreme-weather event disables a primary data center for weeks
Related frameworks
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